Nepal-India relations: Economic Perspective

Prakash A Raj, Kathmandu

Nepal India Relations
An article published in the Herald Tribune by Robert Radtka Vice President of Asia Society in the US raises interesting questions about economic development in two of Nepal's neighbors India and China. Radtke believes that economies of India and China that are competing with each other might become more complimentary in the future. He concludes China may believe it has more to gain by establishing amicable relationship with India. Steps taken in recent years in normalizing Sino-Indian relations should also interest Nepal. Both India and China have enjoyed impressive growth rates in the past decade. Both are on their way to become economic giants. Nepal is situated just north of heavily populated states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in India, which has remained relatively backward. Tibet Autonomous Region is sparsely populated but will be linked with eastern part of China by railway. Nepal is already linked with Tibet by Kodari Highway built in the 1960's. A second highway is being constructed now that will link Kathmandu by Rasuwa to Keyrong. Nepal should be able to take advantage of its proximity to both Indian and Chinese markets. China was able to get foreign investment of $54 billion in 2003, which was ten times more than that received by India. While the strength of the Chinese economy is in manufacturing, that of India is in services.

India has made tremendous progress in IT sector in recent years and has developed outsourcing market for the US and some countries of Western Europe. Nepal could also benefit from such development.

Nepal could also be an attractive destination for FDI from India. It is already the largest investor in Nepal. Indian investors have identified such advantages offered by Nepal such as attractive incentives, Government's positive attitude towards investors, low cost locations, cheap labor cost, easily trainable workforce as some of the factors which will make it attractive to Indian investors. Indian investment in Nepal is 36%, of FDI and includes such sectors as tourism, consumer durables, garments and carpets. Such Indian companies as Dabur, Colgate and Hindustan Lever have setup factories in Nepal with the objective to export their finished products to India.

Tourism and hydropower development are two sectors in which Nepal enjoys comparative advantage and could be attractive for Indian investors. Nepal is an attractive destination for Indian tourists who visit the Country for pilgrimage and sightseeing. An increasing number or young Indians are also visiting the country for honeymoon and adventure tourism. It could also attract more tourists during summer in order to go away from the heat of the Indian plains during summer. Lack of adequate number of airline seats had been a major impediment However, such private airlines from India as Air Sahara and Jet Air have started flying to Nepal in 2004 and some private Nepalese airlines such as Cosmic Air might soon start flying to some Indian cities. There are also prospects of developing health tourism. There is scope for cooperation in hotel management between India and Nepal.

Nepal is one or the countries selected by China for sending tourists. There are already Chinese tourists visiting Nepal. There are prospects that a large number of Chinese tourists would be visiting Nepal and India to such places as Lumbini, Bodhagaya, Sarnath and Kushinagar for pilgrimage tourism as they have more disposable income due to economic development. There arc already many Indians visiting Mansarovar via Nepal for pilgrimage.

Nepal has one of the highest potential for development of Hydroelectric power as variation in altitude and adequate amount or water are present to an extraordinary degree. It is estimated that Nepal enjoys a power generating capacity, of 83,000 MW. Demand For consumption of electric power in North India ha increased dramatically in recent years. There are prospects for Co-operation between Nepal and India in this sector. Bilateral and multilateral donor agencies are interested in funding hydroelectric power development projects in Nepal when they are assured that there exists a market in India. There has been some apprehension in Nepal but India is unwilling to be dependent upon such a vital source of energy outside its own borders. Nepal's experience in utilizing water resources in cooperation with India has not always been encouraging. Kosi Project was the first major river project. It was primarily a flood control project that benefited Bihar and there was very small amount of power produced that could benefit Nepal in view of size of project. Similarly, Gandak Project utilizing another major river of Nepal was primarily for irrigation that benefited UP and Bihar in India and gave some benefits to Nepal as well.

An Indian columnist has written about Nepal's potential to become an economic bridge between India and China in view of opening of new rail line to Lhasa from eastern China by 2006 that could be extended to Shigatse on one hand and the possibility of linking railhead south of the border with India.

The leadership in India in two decades after the Indian independence consisted of older people associated with Indian National Congress or Socialists. Many of these leaders came from north Indian states of UP and Bihar. On the other hand, many of the Nepalese leaders had close links with India as they had studied in such north Indian cities as Varanasi, Allahabad and Kolkotta. Some were even born there. However, the leadership in both India and Nepal in the beginning of the new millennium has come from a different background. Parties that are more regional than national now rule the two Indian states in the Gangetic Plains. The coalition government in New Delhi in the recent past has also included representatives of many parties, which are regional. Similarly, new leadership in Nepal is younger and does not have the same linkages with UP and Bihar as in the past as there are more educational institutions inside Nepal itself and due to opportunities for studies in foreign countries other than India. The leftist leadership in Nepal now may have close rapport with those in West Bengal. This could generate new perspective in Indio-Nepal relationship.

In a nutshell it could be said that one of the major issues concerning Indo -Nepal relations is what has been alleged insensitivity to India's security concerns as a former Indian Ambassador has written. Actually, Nepal should not allow its territory to be used against any of its two neighbors. On the other hand there is ample scope for cooperation in harnessing water resources of Nepal benefiting both the countries provided it is transparent and benefits are distributed equitably. (Courtesy: IFA/FES)

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Panchasheel received further fillip during Bangdung Conference

BY DEV RAJ DAHAL

Lying between the Himalayas and the Indian Ocean, South Asia forms an organic security zone - a zone that had historically shaped regional security by spreading the messages of civilization, cooperation and peace. Aware of historical reasoning about the political and psychological causes of war, ancient statesmen had jettisoned the policy of balance of power, self-help and state-centric order in favor of the freedom of the movements of people, trade and commerce. The varied and deep economic and social links among the South Asian countries - Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka helped to generate a strong political will to build cooperation that disposed the governments to define security on welfare-maximizing terms. The consideration of the well-being of over one billion people of the region still constitutes the central objective of comprehensive security at inter-state and inter-societal level.

Europe is practicing "collective self-defense." A common threat perception shapes the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), its security and autonomy encapsulated in the ideas of Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality, South Asia, however, is struggling to form a collective identity through shared values and interests in cooperation and engagement in restraint, non-confrontation and consultation. Does it mean that the region is marking a paradigm shift form the hitherto "internationalization of security policy" to regionalization? A vision of greater interdependence of the regional peoples and the states and shared interests in the promotion of peace and progress underlie the leitmotif of comprehensive security. By definition, comprehensive security encompasses the full range of survival, well-being and identity-related issues and the complex links between the domestic order and international relations. Besides, it subsumes vital strategic concerns of the states, markets and civil societies all acting together to achieve a higher source of public order based on social justice and equal access to the regional commons. Institutional development of regional policy objectives is essential to achieve coordinated action in issue areas. A secure region is that whose statesmen and citizens have the reason to perceive that internal and external environment are peaceful and all the levels of security assessment - individual, sub-national, state, regional and global - are co-dependent, mutually beneficial and cohesive.

South Asia can neither be separated from the global geopolitical contest nor from the main international security, political, economic and technological developments. Growing cooperation between the region and other global powers, including India and Pakistan, harmonization of positions of regional states on a number of international issues, including agreement on free trade areas (SAFTA), the World Trade Organization (WTO) and ratification of the Additional Protocol to the Convention on Suppression of Terrorism spell out the evolution of a realpolitk entente. Substantive dialogue on Kashmir, exchange of information on missile tests, opposition to open-ended arms race and promise to create a violence-free environment indicate a growing recognition towards mutual responsibility. Greater economic integration of South Asia. based on the foundation of the Social Charter, binds all countries to work together to increase efficiencies in poverty alleviation, education, trade, investment and environment management and reinforce the commitment to common responsibility for a stable peace.

Comprehensive security requires the creation of a viable regime with healthy bilateral relations between India and its South Asian neighbors and effective multilateralism seeking the cooperation of the international community for an inclusive transformation of regional societies for effective governance.

Norm-Governed Regime: The principle of comprehensive security is a protective manifestation of the solidarity of peaceful states as opposed to that which sets exclusive national interests above those of the community interests of states and peoples. The structural character of the South Asian ties defines distinct perception about each nation’s self image, the other’s character, intentions and capabilities. This structural context describes the rational choices available to each state, rules of the game for cooperation and the conceptual conclusion of policy decisions. In this context, how can comprehensive security offer reasonable benefits for individual states that correspond with the regional interest constellations? Lord Buddha invented the idea of Panchasheel to regulate the conduct of human beings. On April 29, 1954 India and China conceptualized its historical relevance for the pacification of durable inter-state relations in Asia and tried to reduce the states’ sovereign potential for conflict.

Panchasheel, grounded on Asian language, culture, feeling and textuality, received further fillip during the Bangdung Conference of Afro-Asian states and subsequently served an ideological bedrock of the non-aligned movement’s pursuit for independence, equality and freedom of Asian, African and Latin American countries. Strengthening of the state’s efficiency was the order of the day. Weak states can neither ensure security to their citizens nor their neighbors without undergoing costs in resources which can be put for other uses. The five principles of coexistence underlined in Panchasheel ideally constitutes the cardinal principles of comprehensive security and at the same time forms the reason, art and method of multilateralism the regional countries are pursuing in the SAARC, the UN and non-aligned movements in the name of collective security. Regional civil societies and market institutions are already creating a "multiple space" for post-national activities and have been emphasizing conflict prevention and conflict resolution by the use of civilian means. Soft-regionalism is also developing on other fronts and drawing important powers into a loose network of economic, political and social relations for civil coexistence.

Civil Coexistence: South Asia’s harmonious development is possible if India-Pakistan ties improve and growing cooperation in "soft politics" binds shared interests in "hard politics"- security, economy and international relations. Intensified political dialogues, confidence building measures (CBM) and social, economic, ecological and technological cooperation can create necessary conditions for reducing the threat of tension and rebellion and promote the foundation for economic and social justice, peace and progress in South Asia. The challenge to peace springs from the fundamental inability to see security as anything other than defense concern. When globalization is breaking the discipline and boundaries of the Westphalian system and reconnecting the regions and people, it is important to strengthen comprehensive security to enable South Asia to adjust in the existing multi-polar, hierarchical and competitive international system.

Sense of Community: The utility of SAARC lies in deepening and enlarging the areas of soft-politics with an aim of beefing up efforts to meet the need for comprehensive security in the region. Its political future rests on effectiveness and coherence - effectiveness in utilizing its principles, objectives and means and coherence on institutional routines designed to regulate exchange of relationship in functional areas of cooperation. Regime growth begins if both effectiveness and coherence in performance remains firm and common interests and consensus among them continue to grow. It requires the coherence of three approaches - bilateral coordination of action, regional coalition and global solidarity for collective action. Both the spirit and letter of the SAARC charter encourage the member states to strengthen the general structure of regional peace. South Asia can overcome its backwardness if its leadership can articulate the possibilities for an understanding between its public and the world.(IFA/FES)

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